The US Institute Office of the Director of National Intelligence is located in Washington DC. It was established in 2005. This institute is responsible for the development, implementation, and oversight of effective, efficient, and uniform policies and procedures governing the conduct of investigations and adjudications for eligibility for access to classified information and eligibility to hold a sensitive position. Its duties are further extended to cover personnel security processes within all agencies and governments. The very intelligence establishment has published a report titled, "Annual Threat Assessment" which is worth reading.
"Global Terrorism" is a chapter in this report in which research data has been penned regarding ISIS and Al-Qaeda. According to an assessment, ISIS and Al-Qaeda from the Sunni Terrorism and pose the biggest threat to the US Interests. These groups try to attack inside America. However, the US has minimized their abilities on a large scale. Owing to the ideological designs of the small cells of these within the US are a serious threat on wider scale. The ISIS & Al-Qaeda inspired terrorist activities full of menace and extremist are manifested. These violent acts include racism and anti-government elements. In response to the increasing stress in Central Asia, the Lebanon based Hezbollah is expected to pull out America and attacks the US interests. Terrorism by the same organizations can expand globally and in the countries where the Western support and aid have mitigated. This gap left by the West can help them makeover the losses they have faced.
According to the analysts, even after the loss of leadership in ISIS and Al-Qaeda, there is no dearth of extremist acts rather these are expected to expand. Undoubtedly the number of attacks has reduced since 2020 but extensive intrusions are always the top priority of these terrorist groups. Attacks that result in major losses are the real threat to the US this year. In Iraq and Syria, both organizations especially ISIS will enlarge the circle of their insurgencies besides damaging infrastructure, killing local leadership, attacking security agencies, developing works. The appeal of ISIS will remain even before the narrower audience. Without the media cell of the very group, leaderless ISIS will keep up its assaults. The core hindrance in the movement of this organization will be the downfall of their owned media cell.
Al-Qaeda’s senior leadership has to undergo some failures but the other leaders will encourage cooperation among local elements. The Al-Qaeda leadership will demand attacks against the US and other international targets along with persistence in heading the conspiracies. The local connections of Al-Qaeda will create threats for the American disputes and from remote areas, for the Western interests, local governments and international communities.
The most vital part of this report is "Conflict and Instability" deals with the current plight of Afghanistan, China, India, Iran and Pakistan and is stuffed with research data. The opening of this chapter reveals challenges and dangers for America. It also throws light on the ongoing conflicts, their intensity and warning that these clashes will turn into war. The report goes as the internal and international instability will directly or indirectly challenge and create perils for the US persons and interests. Power and resources, Racist riots and a war of ideologies will engulf many countries and civil war may commence in these countries. The international issues will be activated. These may include border disputes and Indo-China confrontation on the border will not spare.
As far as Afghanistan is concerned, the report under discussion predicts that chances of the Afghan Peace Process are very few till next year. Between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan forces, it might happen that the Taliban may gain an advantage but if the Afghan government steps back from the very process, then it will make efforts to hold control over the Taliban. Kabul will continue to face damages on the battlefield and the Taliban, with the belief of winning the fight, will go on fighting. On the other hand, the Afghan security forces are securing the large cities and other official strongholds but at the same time, they are tied with missions. The Afghan military has tried to stick to either occupy or their presence in the same areas where they stepped back in the year 2020.
The picture of escalation between India and Pakistan is painted as the general war between the two is unlikely but the crisis may become more intense risking an escalatory cycle. Under the leadership of Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, India may respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations unlikely in the past. Heightened tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbouring countries raise the level of confrontation. Militant attacks inside the territory of India and violent unrest in Kashmir is just a flash.
Overall if we take a deep view of the said report, we will come to know the focus of the US Think Tanks on the region. Their interest and centre of spotlight show full-time cynosure. Joe Biden, Mr President has announced the deadline of the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan but if this happens and the US troops leave the Afghan region for good, the current Afghan stakeholders, according to the report’s analysis, will have to lick the dust and the administrative structure will fall down straight. Provocations between India and China are likely to happen but Indo-Pak relations are getting normal and a friendly atmosphere is being sensed.
